BEING PREPARED: GHA Chief Executive with Health Minister Yvette del Agua at the Primary Care Centre yesterday looking at the swine flu response facilities. Picture: Johnny Bugeja

With a first local case now confirmed, doctors in Gibraltar have detected a second possible case of swine flu. Health officials are braced for an increase in the number of people infected with the virus. However 18 people tested were last night cleared.

The first  case, which was confirmed late last night (Friday), involves a local 19-year old woman. A visiting 16-year old boy is suspected of having contracted the virus. Both are suffering mild symptoms and are being treated at home.

 

Both had been in the UK recently and were diagnosed with a 24 hour period, though it was not clear last night whether they had come into contact with each other.

Medical staff were tracing people who had interacted with the two patients in order to monitor them for symptoms.

Gibraltar is still trying to contain the illness but officials are being pragmatic about the prospect of the virus spreading.

Contingency planners are prepared to handle any sharp rise in patient numbers and to shift tactics if necessary.

“We are obviously expecting this to spread, as much as we have measures in place to contain it,” said health minister Yvette del Agua during a visit to the flu clinic.

“We have contingency plans for every possible scenario, but we’ll cross those bridges when we get to them.”

Doctors have yet to confirm that the second patient is infected with swine flu but said the likelihood was “pretty high”. had

Both patients initially tested positive for influenza A, a strain of virus that can include the swine flu bug. The results of the final tests for the second case will be known by Tuesday at the latest.

A special clinic has now been opened in the Primary Care Centre where medical staff wearing facemasks and full body protection will carry out initial tests on anyone showing flu-like symptoms.

The idea is to keep such patients away from the main waiting room to avoid others being infected.

The moment a suspect case is detected, the anti-viral drug Tamiflu is issued to both the patient and anyone who has been in close contact. There is enough Tamiflu for the entire population.

The Gibraltar Health Authority has also ordered vaccines, though these are currently being tested and will not be ready until September at the earliest.

INFECTION RATES

With infection rates rising sharply in the UK and Spain, the two countries with closest links to Gibraltar, officials here are taking a realistic approach to this illness.

Gibraltar is still working to contain the spread of the flu, unlike other countries including the UK which are now treating anyone with the symptoms.

“We need to do as much as possible to contain the situation,” Mrs del Agua said. “We might come to a stage where we need to change strategy and adopt the UK one, which is purely treatment.”

“But we are far away from that stage, unless this develops rapidly over the next weeks and months.”

One element of a change to a treatment strategy is likely to be the introduction of a diagnosis system similar to that in place in the UK.

Most patients are now assessed remotely by telephone or online and, except in the most serious cases, prescribed Tamiflu without having to physically see a doctor.

Doctor David McCutcheon, chief executive of the Gibraltar Health Authority, said it was very hard to forecast the extent to which the flu will impact on Gibraltar.

“It’s very hard to predict numbers because we don’t know what the rate of penetration will be,” he said.

But past experience with last year’s measles outbreak has prompted health officials to adopt a cautious approach.

The GHA’s contingency planning is for a worst case scenario with “significantly high” numbers of infected people.

“Our planning will anticipate maybe even more than the UK [where officials expect up to 30% of the population to contract the flu],” Dr McCutcheon said.

“But the reality is that the actual infection rate may be much lower.”