The Correspondent When on Route 66...

It was Denis Healy who, shortly after arriving at the House of Lords, referred to it as the “land of the living dead”. Others have called it a knacker’s yard but it actually has a real function.

The upper house can spend more time analysing and improving legislation. Its focus on important issues is sometimes less transient than the House of Commons where the news cycle dominates.
There is also an important role, which is to benefit from the experience of older politicians without them blocking the dynamics of a changing society and its own politics.

Investment in education is something Gibraltar has done for several decades and reflects the constructive approach to use of taxes that the Bossano-led government generally followed in the late 1980s into the1990s. The AACR and Adolfo Canepa in particular had resisted this, defending a points system which very much reduced the number of Gibraltarian graduates available for roles in Gibraltar or to expand the economy. Their argument was that opening up scholarships would lead to lower standards. This has been disproven by the high quality of top end students year after year.

Where overall education and exams results stand by comparison to other jurisdictions is a different debate.

The opening up of education through provision of grants for university has been transformational, perhaps more so than any other measure taken by a Gibraltar government. It has broadened the minds of generations, reduced dependency on expat professionals and supports the dynamics of a changing service-led economy.

Even where students might have taken a softer path and not proven to be very academic, the experience of studying and living abroad is a vital part of a community’s character. It’s broader thinking.

Of course, the size of the economy has not always lent itself to the aspirations of graduates in professions other than law and accountancy. The size of the country, though perhaps distortedly larger in some sectors, cannot provide jobs commensurate with the hopes of those qualifying in certain disciplines.

My guess, and I asked for stats but did not get a reply on going to press, is that the number of Gibraltarians not returning to the Rock is gradually increasing for a number of reasons.
Firstly, the more educated the population, the more confident it will be in working internationally. Equally diminishing professional opportunities, housing costs, social life, will all be factors.

Of course, experience working abroad after university is also a positive. People who return with greater experience are an asset if they can feed this into the needs of the community.
Whilst the debate about ‘who’ is a Gibraltarian could be difficult if not contentious, there is no doubt that our community is diverse. The recent census showed that in 2022, 37.1% of the usually‑resident population (14,059 people) were born outside Gibraltar. That’s a figure that is creeping up (estimated now approx. 41% given 3,000 more migrants since 2022) and is predominantly made up by UK-born people, followed by people born in Spain and then Morocco. Compare that to 16% of people living in UK having been born elsewhere.

The GFSB, in a useful summary of the Gibraltar Census, made the following predictions:
- Population growth is likely to continue, though at a more controlled pace given capacity limits and recent steps to manage residency.

- The share of older residents will rise further, creating a larger “silver economy” potentially driving growth in pensions and services aimed at this demographic and adding pressure on health and care services.

- Labour shortages may drive greater use of automation and AI, particularly in finance, e-gaming and retail, while reliance on cross-frontier workers will remain.

- Housing demand will stay firm, which could see more innovative developments and continued use of co-ownership and elderly housing schemes.

- Sectors best placed for growth include healthcare and care services, property and construction, financial services, digital industries and tourism that leverages Gibraltar’s heritage and global links.

But whilst this identifies opportunities tomorrow for business people today, the real issue remains - what will keep our younger Gibraltarians happy to invest in a future locally.
It was a report on the BBC recently which got me reflecting on the issue of opportunities for young people. The challenges they are facing are considerable, certainly in the UK which is impacted by global uncertainty and major changes in economic opportunity, including the impact of AI.

Some graduates work through dozens of applications, even hundreds, before they get an opportunity of competing for a job and, in some cases, are being interviewed by AI systems. that’s got to be disheartening.

In a world where inflation is running rampant, people of all ages have to work. And clearly it’s healthy to work if one can. But we must ensure, especially in the public sector, that doors open for younger generations, that skills are passed on and opportunity exists as a stimulus for productivity.

Personally, I was very conscious of this when I took the role on in London as Representative. I told the Deputy Chief Minister early on that I would retire from the role at 65 to open the way for someone younger.

I appreciate that the private sector is different and the point I make is in relation to roles paid for by the taxpayer who should expect people in top positions to be in their prime and with new ideas.

Public roles, such as politicians, where party politics and the public vote decides the line-up, are also different. That said, the reality on the ground, looking at some MPs, must advocate strongly in favour of a second house - a House of Lords-type institution - where experience and wisdom can be tapped, and political life is not stymied in the past.

Bermuda, which has double our population, is a good example of the challenge we may face as success with the Treaty adds pressure to living costs and opportunities. Many young Bermudians in their twenties, half of them graduates, are opting to stay in UK and the US. The main issues are housing costs, job opportunities at the right level and area of skills.

Whether at graduate or other skills levels, containing the diaspora and creating opportunity for Gibraltarians will become even more challenging as several hundred new graduates emerge each year and an easy border gives the private sector access to a wider pool of workers.

It’s not easy. Successive governments have tried varying schemes in different areas including skills for, say, tourism as well as high end opportunities. And what the economy needs and what people want won’t always match.

The challenge for the next government, as it fights an election with the Treaty taking full effect, will be to bring together a sense of future for our young people.

Aside from the battles of Brexit and the shock of Covid, a key legacy from the current government will have been a broadening of our society and a move away from the parochial thinking that used to dominate our community.

Retaining our identity means retaining our people. Creating meaningful pathways for new blood.

That’s a challenge for all of us.

Bedside reading: It Can’t Happen Here Sinclair Lewis
Podcast at https://substack.com/@dominiquesearle