Border woes put spotlight on treaty talks in troubled times

Last Friday once again put a spotlight on the importance of frontier fluidity to communities on either side of the border.

Some 15,000 people cross the border daily to provide services across all areas of Gibraltar’s economy, including healthcare.

It is a mutual dependence that underscores the need for a post-Brexit treaty that provides guarantees and stability for citizens, Gibraltarian and Spaniards alike.

On Friday, the Spanish police chief inspector in charge at the border unilaterally ordered the passports of all British nationals to be stamped, Gibraltar residents included.

That was at odds with interim arrangements agreed by the UK, Spain, the European Commission and Gibraltar allowing red ID card holders to cross without having their passports stamped pending the outcome of treaty talks.

The chief inspector believes those interim measures contravene Schengen rules and has filed complaints in a La Linea court. Spain’s Ministry of the Interior, which is responsible for the country’s borders, says they don’t.

The order to stamp passports on Friday was swiftly overruled and there were confusing claims in Spanish media that the chief inspector had been removed from post.

As we reported on Saturday, he hadn’t been removed, though he was ordered on Friday to work from the main police headquarters.

On Monday he was back at the border, though his presence there may be short lived amid reports he faces suspension over unrelated disciplinary matters.

While unilateral actions inevitably lead to disruption and generate unnecessary anxiety, the chief inspector’s fate is largely immaterial.

The important issue is whether Madrid wants the interim arrangements to remain in place until the end of treaty talks.

All indications are that it does, though history has shown repeatedly that the border often has a life of its own.

Someone told me last Friday that each incident of this sort undermines trust and makes it harder to get any treaty over the line. That is a valid and understandable observation.

But closer analysis might also suggest a different reading.

Faced with an officer’s unilateral initiative last Friday, Madrid swiftly reversed his orders, much as it had done on previous such occasions.

Whatever doubts one might legitimately harbour about Spanish intentions, that points to a desire to build trust while negotiators try to conclude their work.

What is clear is that these situations inevitably add yet another layer of uncertainty to the Brexit vacuum in which the Rock has existed since 2016.

One silver lining is that attention has once again been focused on the central issue in the negotiation, post-Brexit frontier fluidity.

Friday’s confusion will not have gone unnoticed by those sitting at the negotiating table, and that’s not a bad thing.

PROTRACTED TALKS

So what of the progress of this protracted negotiation?

As ever, there is little detail on the content of the talks, which are zealously guarded by all sides to avoid negotiation by press release, social media and leaks. Frustrating as that is, it’s a sign of seriousness.

The success of any treaty will lie in its detail, and the jury remains out in that respect.

The mood music, however, appears to be positive.

Early last week, Jose Manuel Albares, the Spanish Minister for Foreign Affairs, said positions in the negotiation continued to edge closer and were now focused on “very operational aspects”.

He said all parties “are aligned in the belief that we will reach an agreement”.

A few days later, Chief Minister Fabian Picardo echoed that view in an interview on TVE, in which he remained “very optimistic” of a treaty that did not cross respective red lines.

“The art of this negotiation is making sure that neither what matters to me nor what matters to you is violated,” he told Spanish journalists.

No one involved in the talks will commit to a timeline but there is once again a growing sense of urgency.

UK and EU leaders are to hold a summit in May on Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s drive to “reset” the UK/EU relationship after Brexit.

Antonio Costa, the European Council president, said the Summit would focus on establishing “the closest relationship it will be possible to build together”.

Last October, at a Gibraltar Day reception in London, Nick Thomas-Symonds, the UK Minister for EU Relations, said Gibraltar was “at the heart” of the UK’s reset plans.

Given the wider issues facing both the UK and the EU, it is likely all sides will want the Gibraltar issue resolved before the May summit if possible. It would be an attractive prize in a much larger landscape.

Negotiators will be keeping an eye too on the forthcoming entry into operation of the EU’s automated border control system, the Entry/Exit System [EES].

The EES will require all non-EU nationals to undergo biometric checks on entering the Schengen area and will likely lead to delays at the border in the absence of a treaty. It will probably mean an end to interim arrangements too.

The system was supposed to be implemented late last year but was delayed for the umpteenth time amid concerns that many EU port and airports were not yet ready for the change.

The EU is now looking at a phased implementation and there is no start date confirmed, though June is likely.

Again, if a treaty is possible, negotiators will want it agreed before that happens.

DEFENCE MATTERS

The international dimension does not help their work though.

President Trump’s threat of a trans-Atlantic trade war and his approach to Russia and Ukraine have alarmed European countries, who now face challenging decisions on how to fund increased defence spending as the US signals it will no longer underwrite European security with a blank cheque.

Writing for The Sunday Times last weekend, Defence Secretary John Healey suggested that a US-brokered peace that marginalised Kyiv would only lead to a temporary cessation of the war.

“Decisions made over the coming weeks will not only define the outcome of this conflict but the shape of global security for a generation,” he wrote.

As the Prime Minister prepares to meet the US President in Washington later this week, all of this may seem far removed from Gibraltar.

But the Rock’s value as a strategic military lily pad between the UK and hotspots in the middle east and the Sahel has only increased in recent years, as evidenced by regular operational logistical stops by warships, submarines and planes.

UK ministers have spoken regularly of the need for any Gibraltar treaty to guarantee the UK’s “military autonomy” here. Whatever that means in practice, it will be a decisive factor of any deal.

The Rock’s strategic importance was highlighted by the Ministry of Defence in a recent submission to the Defence Committee in the House of Lords as part of an inquiry on the UK’s contribution to European security.

“The importance of the UK’s overseas bases in Europe to European security should also not be overlooked,” the MoD document said.

“British Forces Gibraltar can control ingress and egress to the Mediterranean, is a staging post for both east-west and north-south transits of the Atlantic, and - in the event of a challenge to tactical superiority in the eastern Mediterranean - is likely to be key in defending the west and reasserting NATO authority in the east.”

The UK is currently finalising a strategic defence review commissioned by the Labour government last year. It will be interesting to see what the new review says about Gibraltar, especially against the backdrop of treaty talks and a world in flux.

MEANWHILE IN SPAIN

A close eye should be kept too on political developments in Spain, where the conservative Partido Popular and far right Vox are gaining ground in the polls as the Socialists struggle with a fragile coalition government.

On Saturday, President Trump praised Vox leader Santiago Abascal during the Conservative Political Action Conference, telling him he was doing a “great job” even while getting his name wrong and calling him Santiago “Obiscal”.

In the audience, the Vox leader gushed at the flattery, rising slightly from his seat as he held his right hand to his heart in thanks.

A clip of that moment was later shared by Elon Musk to his 219 million followers on X, along with the message: “Vox will win the next election.”

Spanish politics would have to undergo a seismic shift for that prediction to become reality, but a PP government propped up by Vox is certainly a possibility.

It’s probably worth thinking about what that might mean for us.

The roots of the negotiation stretch back to when the PP was in office and Alfonso Dastis, a career diplomat, was Spain’s Foreign Minister.

But the influence of Vox in a coalition government of the right would strain any attempt at pragmatism, and probably relations with Spain too.

We live in a world of change and disruption on multiple fronts, and that is the backdrop to our treaty negotiation.

Sadly, what is increasingly clear is that, with or without a deal, everything points to curves in the road ahead.