The Correspondent Stop the music! Hold the front page!

I thought last Monday’s front page of the Gibraltar Chronicle was startling.

‘Property market realigns as total deal value falls and residency pause weighs on confidence’ side by side ‘£2,8m worth of personalised licence plates sold, with top registration £100,000’.
Between the two stories we have a very powerful statement of where we are today and where we might be tomorrow.

Not a bad thing – depending on which deck of the ship on which you are travelling.

The challenge is to move forward, grasp the opportunities and at the same time keep our sense of being a small nation, community and remain accommodating for normal living.

If the description I used a few weeks ago - ‘welfare capitalism’ - needed affirmation here it is. And whilst the woes of real estate agents won’t have disturbed everybody’s breakfast, this juxtaposition of property transactions, and number-plates at a price that could buy you a small country house a few miles away, is an indicator of the precipice of change that we could be approaching if all sectors of our community are not engaged and ready to manage the impact.

In an economy increasingly risking being based on a trickle-down principle, it will need a couple more structured thinkers – as Bossano mostly has been - to create disciplined sustainable economic structures.

Special places like Gibraltar, Florence, Venice, Valetta are reaching a point where high income for some comes at the cost of increasing inequality and decreasing environmental and community safeguards.

We are not alone in dealing with change. UN secretary general Antonio Guterres only last week, speaking to The Guardian after meeting global economist said we all need to place “true value on the environment and go beyond gross domestic product as a measure of human progress and wellbeing. Let us not forget that when we destroy a forest, we are creating GDP. When we overfish, we are creating GDP.”

“Moving beyond gross domestic product is about measuring the things that really matter to people and their communities. GDP tells us the cost of everything, and the value of nothing. Our world is not a gigantic corporation. Financial decisions should be based on more than a snapshot of profit and loss,” he said.

The Gibraltar Government has not only indicated it is clearly aware of the challenges but wants to address them. We will see just how prepared we actually are as things unfold. But we must all be part of that change, not just passengers.

Confirmation of that, is the big pause button on residency the Government itself has had to press.

On the one hand we have to look for our ‘habichuelas’ . Steady property prices and movement in the market are a good indicator of economic activity. A massive shot upwards could create problematic distortions, especially for young families.

On the other hand, like many small European cities, we want to preserve some of the important aspects of our way of life.

Malta, Venice, fishing villages in Cornwall, are engaged in fierce debates over their futures and controlling the access of wealthy outsiders and or tourists. In Bermuda there has long been a deep concern over the exit of young people who can’t afford to set up home on the island. Different authorities – Barcelona is an example – have had to look at controlling AirBnB type rentals (searching ‘Gibraltar’ on the AirBnB app is interesting to say the least) and imposing tariffs on second homes.

Of course, there has to be a balance and Gibraltar has never been a place that has wanted to give up the changing diversity which is essential also for its economic survival.

This is why the government’s affordable housing programme is ever more critical as is the ability to control the benefits and rights afforded to people coming to Gibraltar.

But there is a difference between offering a good education system that supports tertiary education as the community invests in itself, and people using the Rock as a tax break where the cost of university is a mere tax perk with no long-term commitment to the Rock’s future.

The experience of 1985 will undoubtedly duplicate itself to some extent. Within weeks, even those who vowed not to step across the border were advising on the best ventas or nightclubs.

Gradually many, understandably, opted for a house with a garden and shared pool for the price of a small flat on the Rock. Prices for rent in La Linea and nearby began to rise to cope with the demand especially from cross-border workers.

All of this is normal EU living but it brought a real and complex impact on Gibraltar itself. This included the fact that some people who could afford their own home kept a government rental and bought a home in Spain too. Which is not quite the aim of social housing!

By way of illustration look at the dangerously high pitch the local market has been reaching as we approach Treaty implementation. £450k buy you a two bedroom flat in Mons Calpe Mews (requiring three years residency) and the same amount would get you a similar London flat in North Greenwich (trendy with young professionals near the O2 and Olympic village) or a detached 9 bedroom villa near Medina Sidonia with private pool.

All of which means that if new arrivals at Gibraltar are not controlled the pressure on services could become unbearable. How many carers will we need for people who are already elderly when they arrive to live here?

As it is there have long been issues with people getting their children into the Gibraltar school system when they in fact live in Spain. One of the problems of internet communication is that people share these ‘life hacks’ in a way that is not easy to monitor and control.

Fortunately, Gibraltarians have no objection to ID cards and the like, so increasingly Government should be able to work with reliable information and precision.

This is why pension liability and the like are such important issues for future generations. And even though the Treaty has defined a limit on that liability (according to Sir Joe’s TV interview) the experience with Spanish pension in the 80s should be enough to warn us that things could change if we were to find ourselves, say, once again in the EU proper because UK eventually decides to rejoin or set up a special relationship.

Setting aside the political challenges ahead, I welcomed the 1985 opening and I welcome the Treaty. But we must not underestimate how small matters accumulate into social changes.

There is not a residence from La Linea to Huelva, to Bilbao and across to Barcelona and down again, that does not have barred windows on the ground floor. With free flowing access, just as in 1985, the word gets round that Gibraltar is affluent and all forms of street life make their way over. London is swamped by East European beggars who are actually controlled by gangs, mobile phone theft becomes easier and the like.

The positive side of the sense of village (there are plenty of negatives) is much reduced from where it was a couple of decades ago and this could be a moment of major change unless we are on top of things.

Take buskers. Genuine buskers are fine but need to be regulated. I recall days at the Chronicle office in Casemates when – and they were rather good musicians - a group of South Americans with portable PA rotated on three songs until, by the evening, I was pleading for a dose of water boarding; el Condor nunca pasaba, endless hammer and nail!

In Kensington, Westminster, Camden buskers are controlled and amplification use strictly limited. Westminster actually has licences and designated times and places.

The traffic won’t get better and we will all be wanting a greater visible police presence as the initial curiosity of the Treaty news draws visitors.

That’s just an example as we become de facto part of the Spanish mainland.

Build baby build…. But when the music stops, who is left standing?

Bedside reading: Sonnets Macmillan Collection
Podcast at https://substack.com/@dominiquesearle