The great own goal

As UK heads to a summit with the EU on July 22nd trailed by the EU-UK Gibraltar Agreement that sees our border with Spain demolished a few days before that, one might think that Britain is beginning a journey, like the prodigal son, back home to Brussels. Perhaps it is. The road, however, is longer than many think. 

Tomorrow, June 23rd, is hardly a happy anniversary.  

Ten years ago, very much against tiny Gibraltar’s 96% view, and hugely against any pragmatic or rational assessment, Britain carelessly left the EU. 

The door we exited was not one Britain can easily reopen to take its place again.  

Of course, there may be a time when the stars realign in EU and UK politics to renew membership. That will be a long way down the road and would require a certain eagerness within the EU to match UK desire with temptations.  

Polls, as recent as last week, continue to show how divided the UK is on the question of a referendum to rejoin. And the EU, having expended a great deal of energy on the reluctant divorce, has moved on and is looking more to new partners than the one it cannot really trust for a while yet. 

Yes, a small majority now recognise that Brexit has not given the economic returns promised. But there are enough Brexiteers and people with other agendas to make a rush into campaigning for return an exercise that would create bitter debates and long outlive, at least, the next UK general election. 

It’s probable that the Labour government, given pro-European sentiment is strongest in Labour and the Lib Dems, will make noises about getting closer to the EU. That will likely happen whoever is leading it into the next General Election. The position is not dissimilar to that of the SNP in relation to an independence referendum. It is more an ideal or “ambition” than a do or die policy for the party. 

Having jumped off the ship, albeit mistakenly, British politicians are waking up to the fact that it is more productive to focus on being able to swim than desperately trying to climb the slippery, barnacle encrusted hull of SS EU which is sailing increasingly eagerly towards building its eastern flank. 

The cost to business and consumers in UK of a reversal would initially be high and pundits like Anand Menon, who directs UK in a Changing Europe, rightly point to the fact that the actual promise of a referendum would come at an immediate political cost. So more likely we will just hear many ideas thrown to the air - a case of jam yesterday and jam tomorrow, but not jam today. 

If Starmer is out after a leadership challenge, the lesson he would leave behind for a successor will be to be careful who you appoint to join you on the bridge of your ship as advisors, to stick to your guns (a lo hecho pecho) except where your gut tells you otherwise, and to be bold. The public don’t seem to worry as much about the bill if it can be settled further down the line. 

Being serious and caring deeply for the future of your country above your political ambition is apparently not what people currently expect or respect. 

More immediately, Britain does have to work with the EU and does have to build that alliance in every possible way. It’s strongest card, in the current climate, is the one that Starmer had considerable success in building - making the UK as a force for good in international relations. 

Whilst Starmer has so far shown a remarkable teflon-coated ability to soldier on, the recent resignation of John Healy as Defence Secretary followed swiftly by Al Carns, Armed Forces Minister, will have sent shudders down the spines of those who feel that the case for reinforcing Britain’s defence capacity must be the UK’s national priority. 

It’s true that the Treasury and even the PM, may have felt that Healy had ‘gone native’ with MoD and that pumping in huge sums without very careful controls could lead to a feeding frenzy with ever hungry defence companies and military leaders fighting for their patch. Yet the threat, from Russia in particular, remains substantial. 

When in April with its sweet showers readers of the Daily Telegraph in the UK read Chief Minister Fabian Picardo urge the UK to rejoin the EU, that the looming Gibraltar/Spain border emancipating deal could be a blueprint for that ambition, many were no doubt nonplussed.  Their deep-seated hankering, (UK has its own silent equivalent to Spain’s 1898 weakness) is for imperial fantasies - it is not one that would see the handing sovereignty back to Brussels so that it can decide their taxation and immigration policies. 

 Whilst the UK remains as split as it is and no majority of the population is firmly supportive of rejoining or reviving the debate that only serves Farage and Co in their argument that the issue is not that Brexit failed but that it needs people like them to make it work. 

Even Downing Street hopeful Andrew Burnham (oops, sorry mate, ‘Andy’) has been urgently playing down his long-standing pro-EU Remain position whilst Streeting points to the promised land with no obvious water-parting rod in his hand with which to lead the people.  

The expression ‘we are where we are’ has rarely been truer, at least in recent decades. But neither have the realities of a shifting global order moving in the wrong direction. 

It’s great that we have the opportunity to build a future relationship with the EU/Spain and, hopefully, we can keep UK on side, whatever route it takes in choosing the next government.  

But, even if UK were to move towards rejoining the EU, the eventual settlement would likely need Spanish acquiesence as regards any inclusion of Gibraltar. In fact, a UK bid to rejoin might encourage a Spanish government to use us as leverage in a negotiating process where we have no control over timing.  

Whilst I recognise Starmer’s failings as a political performer, I do identify with his centre left politics and his attempt to restore a seriousness to UK that people like Liz Truss and Boris Johnson squandered when in office.  

For Gibraltar classic there is little doubt that the stable and stalwart party for the Rock has always been the Conservatives. However, the same plain vanilla sincerity that saw Starmer continue the Tory plans for Diego Garcia (which the Tories then did an about turn on, perhaps because they only ever intended to string a deal along and not honour it) also saw Labour stick firmly to the Gibraltar led efforts for the Treaty we now see unfolding before us. 

Our future is in the hands of all Gibraltarian voters - Gibraltar today (lower-case t) needs to wake up to the challenges that will arise on our watch. 

Brexit is down there in the Bay of Gibraltar scuttled with ships that tell much of our history.  

Steering safely though choppy waters is not just a thing of the past.  

Bedside reading: Max Jeffrey, The Spectator The dictatorship on the Rock

Podcast at https://substack.com/@dominiquesearle