Thirty years of challenges, growth and resilience

When Louis Montegriffo returned to Gibraltar in the mid-1990s, he was warned there was little future for him on the Rock.

Nearly three decades later, after building a career and business in the property sector, he looks back on a period that transformed Gibraltar's economy, reshaped its property market and, despite repeated political and economic crises, consistently defied expectations.

Mr Montegriffo, BMI Group Managing Director, reflected on Gibraltar's changing physical landscape, from an economy still adjusting to the shrinking of the Ministry of Defence locally to one driven by financial services, online gaming and international investment.

"When I came back to Gibraltar in 1996, my father, who had been in business and had witnessed the changes from the 50s to 80s, questioned my decision to return home, he actually said, ‘don't come back’,” Mr Montegriffo said.

"His view was, look, don't come back, there's nothing here for you in Gibraltar."

Mr Montegriffo said Gibraltar in the mid-1990s faced significant economic uncertainty, with limited private sector opportunities and a property market that had all but stagnated.

At the time, residential property sold for around £450 per square metre, with a two-bedroom apartment in Watergardens changing hands for £45,000 to £50,000.

Those figures now serve as a benchmark for how dramatically the market has evolved.

"The property market doubled in value," he said of the years following the arrival of Gibraltar's first major online gaming companies.

He described the arrival of firms like Victor Chandler and Ladbrokes in the late 1990s as a turning point, not only for property prices but for Gibraltar's wider economy.

The impact extended beyond housing, creating employment, attracting specialist workers and demonstrating how quickly a small economy could respond to new industries.

Mr Montegriffo believes successive governments and local professionals played an important role in building that success, pointing to the development of financial services, gaming regulation and Gibraltar's legal and regulatory framework.

He also credited Gibraltar's education system and grant scheme with creating generations of professionals capable of driving the economy forward as the Rock became less dependent on the MoD.

Throughout those years, however, he said there was never a sense that Gibraltar's future could be taken for granted.

"There hasn't been one day in the 30 years that I've been in business where I haven't been worried about something."

Political tensions with Spain, changing international regulations, economic shocks and uncertainty meant there was always another challenge on the horizon.

Yet his overriding memory is that Gibraltar repeatedly emerged stronger.

“What we continued to see in the industry was not just politicians, but the people in industries of accounting, legal services, lawyers, financial services, driving an economy forward in a way that a lot of people like the older generation would have thought was not possible,” Mr Montegriffo said.

That resilience was tested again in 2016 when the UK voted to leave the European Union.

Mr Montegriffo recalled the immediate reaction in Gibraltar as one of concern that the referendum result would have devastating consequences for the economy and property market.

“I remember coming into my office that morning thinking, ‘what do I say to my clients now?’”

But while activity slowed, the collapse many had feared never materialised.

One incident remained particularly vivid for Mr Montegriffo, the day after the referendum, a multi-million-pound property sale fell through.

Surprisingly, it was not the buyer who withdrew.

"It was the vendor," Mr Montegriffo said.

He added that the vendor had the view that Gibraltar prevails when in crisis.

“And he was absolutely right.”

As negotiations gradually progressed, in Mr Montegriffo’s view, confidence slowly returned.

“We had a bit of a slump, but it wasn't impactful and I think there were a number of reasons for that,” he said.

“It comes back to what I said to this client. I think a lot of people then, once the dust settles, thought whatever would happen was not going to happen overnight. It's going to happen over a while.”

Looking ahead, Mr Montegriffo believes the treaty establishing the framework for Gibraltar's future relationship with the European Union provides greater certainty than the Rock has enjoyed for many years.

"We've got certainty, or more certainty than we've ever had before."

He believes Gibraltar's strengths remain unchanged: security, safety, the English language, its legal system and financial services sector.

Combined with improved border fluidity, he expects those advantages to continue attracting investment.

"My conclusion has to be that we will do well, and that we will grow."

He does not, however, expect dramatic overnight changes.

Instead, he believes growth will come steadily, with different parts of the property market responding at different speeds.

The higher-value sector, which suffered most during the Brexit uncertainty, has already shown signs of renewed confidence, he said.

But he also expressed caution about the lower end of the housing market, particularly studios and smaller apartments, adding that new residency rules may influence future demand.

Beyond economics, Mr Montegriffo acknowledged mixed emotions about Gibraltar's future.

While welcoming greater prosperity and opportunities, he reflected on the cultural changes that have accompanied the Rock's growing population.

He spoke about a Gibraltar where, as a child, people knew one another throughout the community, contrasting it with how Gibraltar could change culturally over future generations.

“My sadness potentially is that as much as I don't want to lose it, I think we've got no choice but to wave it goodbye and embrace, hopefully, a Gibraltar where we still continue to look after the Gibraltarians and I think we seem to be doing that,” he said.

For Mr Montegriffo, that balance between economic progress and preserving Gibraltar's identity will define the next chapter just as much as the economic challenges that shaped the last 30 years.