Starmer resignation creates practical challenge for Gibraltar treaty signing

Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation as Prime Minister on Monday will cause a headache for officials organising the signature of the UK/EU treaty on Gibraltar ahead of its provisional implementation as from July 15. 

The treaty itself will be unaffected by developments in London, but the practical arrangements to get it signed by mid-July have become “a little bit more problematic”, the Chief Minister said on Monday. 

Sir Keir set out a timetable for his exit from Downing Street that would see the next prime minister in place by the time the UK Parliament returns from its summer recess on September 1. 

But a new leader could be appointed much sooner if there is no contest, with nominations to Labour’s ruling body opening on July 9 and closing on July 16. 

MPs across the political spectrum in the House of Commons understand the treaty’s importance after months of briefings by UK ministers, Gibraltar Government ministers and officials.  

Sir Keir will remain in post with his cabinet until a successor is appointed, and the agreement has broad support in the Commons, where Labour in any event continues to have a majority irrespective of who takes over as prime minister. 

“The signature of the treaty does not for one moment come into question and neither does ratification,” Mr Picardo said. 

But this period of significant change in the UK will nevertheless make it challenging in practical terms to get the final steps completed to allow for provisional implementation of the agreement. 

Two dates had been mooted for the signing of the Gibraltar treaty, July 13 and July 8, but the political upheaval in the UK will make it harder to coordinate diaries, something that Mr Picardo acknowledged on Monday. 

The agreement must be signed by a UK minister, likely Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper or Europe Minister Stephen Doughty, and an EU commissioner, most likely Maros Sefcovic, before it can be provisionally implemented on July 15. Given the significance of the treaty, the governments of Gibraltar and Spain will also want to present at its signing. 

“What does it mean for Gibraltar? The date that [Sir Keir] has chosen to leave may cause us a few issues,” Mr Picardo said. 

“We need to have a Minister for Europe or Foreign Secretary to sign the agreement by the 15th of July.” 

“So fixing the right date for that now becomes a little bit more problematic.” 

“But I'm sure that we'll be able to find the right date.” 

BREXIT ANNIVERSARY

Sir Keir’s resignation came on the eve of the 10^th anniversary of the Brexit referendum on June 23, 2026. It means the UK will now have its seventh prime minister in a decade.

On Monday, Andy Burnham confirmed he would stand for the Labour leadership shortly after Sir Keir pledged an “orderly handover of power” in an emotional statement outside Number 10.

Mr Burnham could become prime minister within weeks after former Health Secretary Wes Streeting announced he would not enter the race to succeed Sir Keir Starmer and would back Mr Burnham.

Mr Streeting had been viewed as a potential leadership rival to Mr Burnham, but his decision not to enter the contest paves the way for a coronation as early as mid-July.

But the anointing of a new leader could come much sooner.

Potential candidates have until July 16 to amass the support of at least 81 Labour MPs.

But if Mr Burnham is the only candidate to have gained enough supporters by that point, he will become leader without a vote of the membership and is likely to become prime minister on either July 17 or 18.

If Mr Burnham is unopposed and becomes prime minister mid-July, a summer meeting between the EU and the UK Government could be his debut on the international stage.

The UK-EU summit is scheduled to take place on July 22 in Brussels, although on Monday the EU was reassessing whether it should go ahead as planned or be pushed back.

Commission spokeswoman Paula Pinho said “our relations with the UK are and will remain strong”.

“On the question of the EU-UK summit, against the announcement this morning of the resignation by Prime Minister Starmer, we are reassessing with (European Council) president (Antonio) Costa and the UK the opportunity of still holding the summit as had been announced last week and we will take if from here,” she added.

If it goes ahead, it will see negotiators focused on striking deals aimed at forging closer ties on food, on energy, and on a youth mobility scheme.

Mr Burnham, the new MP for Makerfield, has indicated he is a supporter of closer ties with the EU, having previously said he wanted to see the UK back in the trade bloc within his lifetime.

But as he campaigned in the recent by-election in the Leave-voting constituency on the edge of Greater Manchester, he sought to play down these comments, and pledged not to “re-run” the arguments of Brexit.

He is already facing calls to lean into relations with Europe, with economic analysis commissioned by the campaign group Best For Britain suggesting that the UK would gain a £92 billion windfall if it took steps up to and including re-joining the EU.

However he plans to take forward his pro-EU inclination, Mr Burnham stands to inherit a warmer relationship between the continent and the UK than had existed under the Conservatives, because of Sir Keir’s “reset” with Europe.

The Gibraltar treaty has been championed before as one of the practical achievements of that reset.

In a sign of the friendship between those at the heart of Government and the EU, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen was among those to pay tribute to Sir Keir after he announced his resignation.

Writing on social media, she said: “It can take many leaders years to grow into the statesman you became in just two years.

“European and Ukrainian security is stronger because of you.

“Thank you, dear Keir.”

In Gibraltar, Mr Picardo said Sir Keir had accepted a political reality that had developed in the UK, but that he did not agree.

“I think this is a Prime Minister that has changed the Labour Party and has delivered a result for the Labour Party which was unexpected, a huge majority, a stonking majority,” Mr Picardo said.

“I don't think he deserved to go in this way.”

The Chief Minister wrote to Sir Keir thanking him for his support for Gibraltar, highlighting the treaty and the continued strengthening of relations between Gibraltar and the United Kingdom during his time in office.

“Throughout your time in office, your Government has maintained the steadfast support for Gibraltar that we have come to expect from successive British Governments,” Mr Picardo wrote to Sir Keir.

“We are particularly grateful that, during your premiership, we have seen the agreement of the UK-EU Treaty relating to Gibraltar, establishing a framework for future prosperity and certainty whilst safeguarding the fundamental principles that matter most to the People of Gibraltar."

“In doing so, we have also worked together to protect the important equities of the MOD in Gibraltar which are as important to me, my Government and Gibraltar as a whole as I know they have been to you.”

“I am grateful for your commitment to ensuring that Gibraltar's interests have been properly understood and protected throughout the challenges and opportunities we have faced,” he wrote.

Mr Picardo wished Sir Keir success and happiness in the future.

“Both in your continued contribution to public life and in all your personal and professional endeavours going forward," he wrote.

“Needless to say, you will always be welcome on The Rock.”