Gibraltar one match away from the bitter sweet taste of automatic promotion

Although not the perfect result, Gibraltar’s scoreless draw against Liechtenstein on Sunday has kept them just one point away from remaining in contention for promotion. A win against San Marino in their next match would secure automatic promotion, allowing Gibraltar to finish at the top of the group with eight points. Currently, San Marino sits on three points, so if Gibraltar wins, San Marino would only be able to compete for second place when they face Liechtenstein in the final group match.
Even without a victory, Gibraltar could still stay in contention for promotion by securing at least a draw against San Marino, which would leave them in second place with six points. Liechtenstein is out of contention for automatic promotion at this stage, as their maximum possible points total is five, assuming they beat San Marino.
In the event of a draw against San Marino, Gibraltar’s fate would depend on the outcome of the match between San Marino and Liechtenstein. A San Marino victory in that match would secure automatic promotion for them, forcing Gibraltar into the playoffs. However, a draw between San Marino and Liechtenstein could open the door for Gibraltar to earn automatic promotion, provided they secured at least a point from their match against San Marino. A win for Liechtenstein, on the other hand, would secure automatic promotion for Gibraltar and leave San Marino at risk of finishing at the bottom of the group.
Even a defeat against San Marino could still see Gibraltar contend for promotion through UEFA’s newly introduced playoff stage, depending on the result of the San Marino vs. Liechtenstein match.
In previous editions, second-placed teams in League D did not qualify for promotion. However, the new format allows second-placed teams in League D groups to compete in a playoff against one of the two best fourth-placed teams from League C. The winners, decided on aggregate, will play in League C in the next edition of the competition. This setup gives two teams from League D the opportunity to earn promotion through a playoff against League C opponents. Only third-placed teams in League D are out of contention for promotion.
Despite being unbeaten in the group matches, Gibraltar’s final match against San Marino will be a “cup final” for both teams. For Gibraltar, it represents their last chance to secure automatic promotion, while for San Marino, even a slip in this game could still leave them with a shot at the top spot when they play Liechtenstein.
Having already beaten San Marino at Europa Point, Gibraltar will feel confident about achieving a positive result away from home. Their offensive approach against Liechtenstein in the latest match set them apart, though their low goal-scoring ratio remains a concern. Despite often dominating games, Gibraltar has struggled to finish matches effectively. To secure their second promotion from League D since the Nations League was founded four editions ago, Gibraltar will need to be more clinical in front of goal.
The prospects of promotion for Gibraltar into League C, will however, be a bitter sweet pill for Gibraltar who face the possible scenario of getting promotion and forced to play their matches away from home once again.
With Europa Point presently allowed to be used for Nations League matches, Gibraltar is unlikely to be allowed to play any Nations League play-off match, if they were to get to that stage, in Gibraltar. The venue considered too small by UEFA to hosts teams considered bigger than the likes of Liechtenstein and San Marino.
Similarly, with teams such as Sweden playing in League C, promotion to this league would once again cast doubts over the use of Europa Point to host home matches. Something which could see all the progress achieved in getting Gibraltar’s fan base back into the stands diminished. A no-deal scenario on the political front also raising further doubts as to where Gibraltar could play their matches in order to allow their own home fans a presence at ‘home games.’
Ironically, for Gibraltar fans wishing to watch their team play and support them, promotion to League C will be the bitter sweet pill nobody wishes to ponder on at the moment.