Gibraltar’s Nations League future about to face a tougher test

With all League D teams receiving automatic promotion into League C for the next Nations League, following UEFA’s proposed restructuring of the competition into League 1 and League 2, Gibraltar will be competing for pride rather than the benefits of promotion.

Gibraltar, currently second in their group, prepare to face both Andorra and Malta in the coming days, with only two wins likely to be enough to leapfrog Malta into top spot.

Finishing second, as they did in the previous edition of the Nations League, will no longer provide them with a promotion play-off. That arrangement has already been decided as part of UEFA’s changes.

With the changes to the Nations League and European Qualifiers due to be introduced after EURO 2028, finishing first should provide Gibraltar with the benefit of being better positioned for the group draw in the next edition of the competition.

Gibraltar, still on an unbeaten run, will nevertheless be looking to finish this edition one better than the previous one. In their last Nations League campaign, they went unbeaten in the group stage but failed to secure automatic promotion, which went to San Marino. Gibraltar subsequently lost to Latvia in the promotion play-offs, leaving them in League C.

Their status as a side operating on the fringe between League D and League C is soon to be tested under UEFA’s new format. Gibraltar will face the challenge of avoiding the bottom end of their group when confronted with considerably tougher opposition than they currently encounter in League D, where they have been challenging for top spot.

While UEFA’s new format will mean Gibraltar will not face the top-tier nations in European Qualifiers, the prospect of playing in League 2, which brings together the lower divisions of the new structure, should provide them with more closely contested matches.

It will also mean that the element of facing higher-ranked opposition, such as Germany, Belgium, Poland, Croatia, the Netherlands and France, against whom Gibraltar have suffered heavy defeats, will no longer be available as an explanation for those results.

That does not mean Gibraltar will be without formidable opposition. They could still face sides such as Scotland, Greece, Türkiye, Norway, Romania and Serbia, all of which have played in League C. Other potential opponents include Bulgaria, Latvia, Cyprus and Albania.

Gibraltar will be expected to compete more closely with such nations if they are to maintain momentum towards shedding the label of international minnows. The six-, nine- and even 14-goal defeats are something Gibraltar must overcome if they are to be taken seriously at this level.

While Gibraltar currently hold an unbeaten run which could extend further than any they have enjoyed since joining UEFA, the fact that it has been achieved against lower-ranked teams and League D opposition has led some observers to question how much it really says about their international progress.

Some have drawn comparisons with the results Gibraltar achieved during their days competing in the Island Games, before joining UEFA, suggesting that the current run offers little indication of how far the national team has progressed against stronger international opposition.

Currently ranked 202nd in the FIFA World Rankings, well below their highest-ever position of 190th and also below their average ranking of 200th, Gibraltar should view the matches against Andorra and Malta as two important opportunities to make their mark on the international stage and improve their reputation beyond that of one of Europe’s minnows.