Sanchez weighs November election after housing defeat

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is reportedly mulling a snap general election on November 29 after his government was defeated in parliament on Friday in votes for two key housing decrees.

The prospect of an early election is being closely monitored in Gibraltar because the European Parliament is due to vote on the UK/EU treaty on December 14, with the agreement still in provisional implementation.

An early vote in Spain is unlikely to impact on the EU’s ratification process, which is already under way and produced clear indications of wide support for the agreement during a debate last month in the European Parliament.

And even if Spain went to the polls next month and the vote resulted in a change of government, the outgoing administration would remain in office in a caretaker capacity until a successor was sworn in, a process that in the recent past has taken weeks.

But a November election would raise questions here about how a right-wing government in Madrid, should it happen, could impact on the practical implementation of the treaty going forward.

Spanish media reported on Friday that Mr Sanchez would likely decide this weekend whether to go to the polls early.

The housing decrees aimed to curb property speculation and provide protections to renters including automatically renewing rental contracts.

They followed country-wide demonstrations when an 87-year-old woman was evicted from a flat she had occupied for 70 years after the building was purchased by a property agency that successfully challenged her rent-controlled tenancy and sought a far higher rent for her to remain.

Although an agreement was later reached allowing her to return home on a reduced rent, the case put a spotlight on longstanding concerns about access to housing in Spain and led to furious exchanges in parliament as protestors took to the streets outside.

Spain’s volatile politics and the possibility of a November election generate unease in Gibraltar.

Spain’s already-fractious political discourse has become increasingly confrontational, with the Socialists facing multiple allegations of corruption in recent months and criticism over their handling of the Ceuta migration crisis.

In Brussels, Spain’s PP has called on the European Parliament to refuse consent for the treaty and Vox has opposed it too.

But the agreement has solid cross-party support among MEPs including in the European People’s Party, the parliament’s largest political grouping of which the PP forms part.

In a debate early in September, the EPP said the treaty was “a comprehensive and pragmatic framework” that brought “greater legal certainty” for citizens, businesses and cross-border workers.

Whether the PP and Vox’s parliamentary opposition would translate into a different approach in government is unclear, not least given the agreement has the backing of the European Commission and EU member states at a time when the UK and the EU are rebuilding their relations after Brexit against the backdrop of war in Ukraine.

The agreement has for years relied in large measure on the goodwill of the UK, the EU, Spain and Gibraltar to seek pragmatic solutions to Gibraltar’s post-Brexit situation, not only during the treaty’s negotiation but also when it comes to putting it into practice.

Cross-border cooperation has been crucial, for example, in tackling problems transitioning to new arrangements for the flow of goods during the first weeks of provisional implementation.

Officials here have repeatedly highlighted that the treaty is between the UK and the EU, suggesting any failure by Spain to implement obligations under the agreement could ultimately engage the EU’s responsibility and trigger the treaty’s dispute mechanisms.

That would place any dispute beyond the cross-border relationship between Gibraltar and Spain.

While all sides have so far demonstrated a willingness to make the treaty work, the question for Gibraltar is whether the same level of goodwill would endure under a PP/Vox government in Madrid.

Mr Sanchez lost the votes in the Congress on Friday after Catalan separatist party Junts announced it would oppose the measures, despite earlier indications of support.

Instead, it joined the PP and Vox in rejecting the decrees.

The vote was conducted by a show of hands by request of the Government, with each MP signalling support or rejection one by one to dispel any doubt about their respective positions.

Before the vote, Mr Sanchez urged them to “think about people”, adding “history will judge you”.

But PP Leader Alberto Nuñez Feijóo said the Socialist leader was using housing to divert attention from the Ceuta crisis in a bid to boost his electoral chances and bring forward a vote.