Investors weigh global uncertainty at Turicum seminar

An investment conference this week focused on how AI, geopolitics and the management of public finances impact on investors and the global economy.

Turicum Private Bank’s Investment Seminar at the Eliott Hotel featured talks delivered by Turicum Chief Investment Officer and Treasury Manager Michael Cuby and Senior Portfolio Manager Malcolm White to a conference room of around 60 attendees.

Mr Cuby described how within the first year of US president Trump’s second term he was “causing havoc” with global markets.

“The good news is we've been desensitised to that to some degree,” Mr Cuby said.

“We’ve got thicker skin. The bad news is the issues are still there, they're still prevalent.”

“Conflicts, we have new conflicts, we have old conflicts, we have new conflicts in the Middle East, we have conflicts in the White House.”

He spoke too of global trade friction, a growing divide between the right and left in Europe and the looming US midterm elections, all unfolding against the backdrop of rising inflation, increasing debt and the impact of AI.

So what does all of this mean for Gibraltar?

“Gibraltar is going through a lot of change and I'm just trying to put it in context of the themes we've discussed today,” Mr Cuby said.

“We talked about AI, we talked about geopolitics and we talked about debt.”

“I think those apply everywhere.”

“We talked about innovation and what's great about Gibraltar is that we've always found ways to innovate.”

“We've always found new markets, frontier markets, be it gaming or crypto. We're in that space. I think that's always been good to see.”

“On the geopolitical front, there's a lot that can be said about how Gibraltar faces those political changes.”

“I think the opening up of the border is a good thing for Gibraltar.”

“Economically, it would be a good thing. there's no doubt about that. It's free flow.”

“When things open up, more investment will come in, inter-Gibraltar and across the border as well, and that's only going to be good.”

“And we're living in a more global world, so that's important to have those barriers broken down. So I think we see that too.”

“And then on that third pillar that we spoke about, which is government spending and debt...this is also a concern, I think, that would also apply to Gibraltar as well.”

“Gibraltar has to have a good handle on that if it wants to continue to be able to thrive.”

Mr White spoke to the conference about bonds and Government debt, focusing on the US and UK and how this affects the economy.

He added that as the Gibraltar pound is linked to the British pound any deterioration of the British Pound against the Euro would impact business in Gibraltar, which relies significantly on frontier workers and which imports a significant amount of goods denominated in Euros.

He said Gibraltar’s debt to GDP ratio was relatively low in comparison to countries such as the US.

“It's about maintaining that and keeping us strong as a jurisdiction,” Mr White said.

From an investor’s perspective, Mr Cuby and Mr White said local investors are still looking at property in Gibraltar and elsewhere, and to diversify their portfolios.

“You’ve got to have different types of pots to invest in,” Mr Cuby said.

He added that crypto has taken a place in investment portfolios and investors are also looking at American companies, seeking ways to protect their assets and purchasing power from inflation.